Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03ea…bc49 sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$51
14 days+$18
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$59
other 23% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -10.1% -18.7% 50% 50% +19.3%
≤30d 26 -33.0% -39.4% 38% 38% -13.8%
≤90d 26 -33.0% -39.4% 38% 38% -13.8%
all 26 -33.0% -39.4% 38% 38% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.4% 38% -13.8%
10% -45.2% 38% -22.1%
15% -50.5% 35% -29.6%
20% -55.4% 19% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$12 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage24d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$44 +109%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $50 +$19 +37%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $15 −$15 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $29 +$12 +40%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $27 +$11 +40%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $10 +$10 +101%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $25 −$10 -39%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $15 +$15 +98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $87 +$20 +23%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 03 $18 −$18 -99%
Dota 2: D family vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asi Jun 03 $28 −$27 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $47 −$1 -3%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 30 $17 −$17 -99%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qual May 30 $10 +$5 +46%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $6 +$4 +57%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 94¢ $69 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 68¢ $50 3d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta BUY NRG 56¢ $15 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 14¢ $5 8d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 69¢ $17 8d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 40¢ $10 8d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 59¢ $24 9d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 51¢ $14 9d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 36¢ $5 9d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Global Esports 44¢ $5 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 49¢ $10 9d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $10 10d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $10 10d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 29¢ $10 10d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 75¢ $26 10d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 44¢ $15 10d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 85¢ $30 11d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 42¢ $15 11d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL Team Liquid $1 11d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 85¢ $41 11d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 23¢ $5 11d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL Team Falcons 75¢ $57 11d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $41 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.59 · official $34.59 (match) · 53 history records