Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03eb…1d8e other 233 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 222L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$30
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$33
sports 22% −$17
politics 9% −$9
culture 8% −$8
economics 8% −$7
crypto 4% −$5
world 3% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 233 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)233 / 233
History coverage127d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 233 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $498 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $116 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $370 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $447 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $604 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $252 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $224 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $352 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $345 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $183 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $373 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $275 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $863 −$2 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $148 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $80 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $681 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $143 −$1 -1%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $124 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $135 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $240 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $183 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $208 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $261 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $283 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $255 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 05 $246 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $270 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $50 1h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $50 2h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 4h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 8h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 10h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 13h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 14h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 16h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $51 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $51 20h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $51 23h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 24h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 25h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 26h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 29h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 31h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 42h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 44h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 44h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 47h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1296 history records