Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:13:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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03 0x03eb…d4ba crypto 798 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$761 (-3%) realized −$862 · open +$101
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%343W / 464L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day43.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5,576now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$178
14 days−$178
30 days−$1,807
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$977
other 26% +$107
economics 3% +$66
sports 2% −$298
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -88.0% -89.1% 5% 5% -87.0%
≤30d 190 -24.4% -31.6% 40% 23% -47.0%
≤90d 807 -12.3% -20.7% 43% 35% -16.0%
all 807 -12.3% -20.7% 43% 35% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 35% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 28% -24.1%
15% -35.2% 24% -31.4%
20% -41.6% 20% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$5,576
Realized−$862
Unrealized+$101
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses343 / 464
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)807 / 798
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day43.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 807 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $2,134 $2,169 +$34 (+2%)
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 87¢ 87¢ $1,587 $1,579 −$8 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 80¢ $764 $831 +$67 (+9%)
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 32¢ 33¢ $549 $571 +$22 (+4%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 99¢ $249 $297 +$48 (+19%)
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 90¢ 81¢ $141 $127 −$14 (-10%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 332 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 18? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET Jun 24 $13 +$17 +129%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 03 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 03 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 03 $12 +$8 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 03 $12 +$8 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 03 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 03 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 02 $7 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 02 $6 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 02 $13 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 02 $2 +$8 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 02 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 02 $136 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 02 $32 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 02 $29 +$1 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,143 −$1,105 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 02 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 02 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 70¢ $299 36m
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 70¢ $299 36m
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,583 1h
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 32¢ $63 9h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 1¢ $2 13h
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 18h
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 90¢ $142 31h
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 33¢ $35 44h
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 33¢ $147 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $13 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $259 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $515 3d
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,601 3d
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 31¢ $325 3d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 5d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $4 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $7 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,575.62 · official $5,575.93 (match) · 3500 history records