Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
03 0x03ec…cb7a world 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate48%28W / 30L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$9
other 27% +$3
politics 13% $0
finance 4% $0
crypto 3% −$1
weather 2% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 14 -6.9% -15.7% 29% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 19 +89.7% +71.6% 32% 5% -8.3%
all 58 +28.8% +16.6% 48% 3% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.6% 3% -8.7%
10% +5.4% 3% -17.4%
15% -4.8% 3% -25.4%
20% -14.1% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.05 per $1 lost it wins $4.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses28 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage470d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 73¢ 72¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 19 $52 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $77 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $14 $0 +3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $52 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $99 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $73 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $96 +$3 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $51 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $42 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 22 $9 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $1 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $2 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $16 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $37 +$7 +18%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Dec 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of Ne Jun 09 $6 $0 +3%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 08 $6 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? May 18 $2 +$1 +36%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? Apr 30 $16 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? Apr 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 28 $31 $0 -0%
Trump declassifies Diddy list? Apr 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 27 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump increase cap on H-1B visas in first 100 days? Apr 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 26 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 26 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Cameron Ward? Apr 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Silviu Predoiu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will Pamela Bondi be out as Attorney General in Trump's first 100 days Apr 14 $17 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Jimmy Patronis win by less than 20%? Apr 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $47 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $14 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $24 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $52 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $52 21h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $23 29h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 29h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $7 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $46 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $52 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $22 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $22 3d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $52 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $52 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $51 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $17 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $30 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $47 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $52 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $51 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $51 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $51 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.02 · official $47.12 (match) · 156 history records