Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:49:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03ed…8f34 other 886 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,428 (-6%) realized −$10,428 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%417W / 469L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$531
7 days−$3,268
14 days−$4,684
30 days−$4,978
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$4,791
other 20% −$3,877
sports 9% −$333
crypto 1% −$1,485
politics 0% −$67
finance 0% +$32
economics 0% −$7
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -47.1% -52.1% 29% 29% -44.4%
≤30d 278 -22.1% -29.5% 40% 33% -25.7%
≤90d 886 -17.0% -24.9% 47% 39% -15.2%
all 886 -17.0% -24.9% 47% 39% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.9% 39% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -32.1% 28% -23.3%
15% -38.7% 21% -30.7%
20% -44.7% 17% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$53 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10,428
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses417 / 469
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions0
Markets (closed)886 / 886
History coverage82d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 886 Trades
no open positions (193 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $670 +$329 +49%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $514 −$480 -93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $267 −$209 -78%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,580 +$380 +24%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $506 −$506 -100%
United States to win the second half? Jun 19 $50 −$45 -90%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $657 +$314 +48%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $79 −$19 -24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,571 −$2,865 -80%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $44 −$35 -80%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $123 −$122 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $155 +$134 +86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$18 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $63 +$36 +58%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $93 −$92 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +54%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $79 +$10 +13%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,424 −$989 -41%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $28 +$17 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $201 −$198 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $38 −$37 -95%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,007 +$240 +24%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 13 $102 −$67 -66%
Morocco to win the second half? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $102 +$184 +180%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$7 -65%
Switzerland to win the second half? Jun 13 $50 −$32 -64%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $6 +$6 +114%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $100 −$46 -46%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 13 $110 −$94 -86%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $266 −$100 -38%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $201 −$200 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $4 −$2 -44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,000 +$191 +10%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $33 +$63 +192%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will AC Goianiense vs. CR Brasil end in a draw? Jun 13 $213 +$49 +23%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$91 -91%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $83 +$168 +203%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 12 $10 −$2 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $670 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $34 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 12¢ $58 9h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $514 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 55¢ $110 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $128 11h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,960 26h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,580 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 12¢ $36 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $470 29h
United States to win the second half? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 34h
United States to win the second half? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 34h
United States to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $38 35h
United States to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 35h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 5¢ $0 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 5¢ $0 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 5¢ $1 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 5¢ $0 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $407 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 96¢ $78 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 95¢ $475 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $657 4d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 61¢ $60 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $81 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $626 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3200 history records