Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03f1…50f3 crypto 446 markets active 3d ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,626 (-7%) realized −$2,626 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%220W / 226L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$24
30 days−$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,729
other 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -7.3% -16.1% 62% 38% -0.7%
≤30d 164 -8.3% -17.1% 52% 48% -13.8%
≤90d 434 -11.9% -20.3% 48% 39% -19.3%
all 446 -11.7% -20.1% 49% 38% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 38% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 32% -24.4%
15% -34.7% 28% -31.7%
20% -41.1% 23% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$34 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,626
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses220 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)446 / 446
History coverage92d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 446 Trades
no open positions (88 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $98 −$96 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $92 −$89 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $105 +$82 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $48 +$52 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$18 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $55 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $48 +$32 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $46 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $42 +$20 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $29 −$20 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $40 +$21 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$5 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $39 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $39 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2765 history records