Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:24:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
03 0x03f4…b588 crypto 141 markets active 0h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$77 (+2%) realized +$62 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%67W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$100
14 days+$84
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$168
sports 16% +$231
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +4.3% -5.6% 71% 52% -0.3%
≤30d 131 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 42% -7.3%
≤90d 131 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 42% -7.3%
all 140 -0.6% -10.1% 48% 42% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 42% -8.1%
10% -18.7% 36% -16.9%
15% -26.6% 31% -24.9%
20% -33.8% 24% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$17 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses67 / 73
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage154d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 0¢ 50¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $61 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $46 +$18 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$40 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$59 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$14 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $77 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$44 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $36 +$26 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$3 +8%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $86 +$111 +129%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 06 $3 +$6 +198%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $204 +$194 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 05 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 05 $12 −$11 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 05 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 05 $7 +$126 +1685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 05 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 05 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 04 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 04 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 04 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 04 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 04 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $30 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $41 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.78 · official $15.07 (match) · 407 history records