trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +104.7% | +85.2% | 100% | 100% | +86.8% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +42.8% | +29.2% | 60% | 60% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -12.2% | -20.5% | 36% | 36% | -9.5% |
| all | 23 | +4.8% | -5.2% | 48% | 43% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.2% | 43% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -14.2% | 43% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -22.5% | 39% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -30.1% | 26% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 50¢ | 56¢ | $74 | $84 | +$10 (+13%) |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 50¢ | 44¢ | $74 | $65 | −$10 (-13%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $1 | +$1 | +101% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 18 | $2 | +$3 | +165% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $1 | +$1 | +48% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 29 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? | May 26 | $5,248 | $0 | +0% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees | May 22 | $5,248 | $0 | +0% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 22 | $1 | $0 | +27% |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | May 22 | $2 | +$3 | +188% |
| Pistons vs. Magic | Apr 27 | $2 | −$2 | -99% |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | Apr 21 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on March 2? | Apr 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on February 6? | Apr 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 23? | Apr 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on March 3? | Apr 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Solana Up or Down on March 17? | Mar 23 | $2 | +$1 | +79% |
| Solana Up or Down on March 16? | Mar 17 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on March 10? | Mar 16 | $2 | +$1 | +47% |
| Solana Up or Down on March 9? | Mar 10 | $2 | +$1 | +38% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on February 4? | Feb 06 | $1 | +$1 | +64% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on February 3? | Feb 04 | $1 | +$1 | +52% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? | Jan 22 | $203 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 22 | $4,320 | −$4 | -0% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jan 10 | $12 | $0 | -0% |