Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03f4…7e44 sports 404 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (155 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$67,626 (-21%) realized −$68,596 · open +$970
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%232W / 244L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$810per market
Trades / day154.8pace
Fees−$3,688est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2,428now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34,361
7 days−$47,712
14 days−$57,018
30 days−$57,641
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$22,331
other 2% −$6
crypto 1% −$1,393
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (155 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 -35.2% -41.3% 35% 27% -53.1%
≤30d 476 -15.8% -23.9% 49% 41% -24.2%
≤90d 476 -15.8% -23.9% 49% 41% -24.2%
all 476 -15.8% -23.9% 49% 41% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover154.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.9% 41% -24.2%
10% -31.1% 34% -31.5%
15% ← realistic here -37.8% 26% -38.1%
20% -43.9% 17% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$354 vs −$573 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$2,428
Realized−$68,596
Unrealized+$970
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses232 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$3,688
Open positions1
Markets (closed)476 / 404
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$810
Trades / day154.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 476 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $1,458 $2,428 +$970 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 229 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $660 −$660 -100%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $252 −$252 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $562 −$562 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $264 −$264 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $177 −$177 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $699 −$699 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ALGO Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $869 −$869 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 17 $733 −$733 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $385 −$385 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $165 −$165 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 17 $242 −$242 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $940 −$940 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs Jun 17 $551 −$551 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $343 −$343 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $462 −$462 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs 1win - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $103 +$177 +172%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs Jun 17 $531 −$531 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $826 −$826 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $268 −$268 -100%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 17 $412 −$412 -100%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs MASONIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $484 −$484 -100%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $580 −$580 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $174 −$174 -100%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $608 −$665 -110%
LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Jun 17 $142 +$33 +23%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,102 −$1,102 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $477 −$477 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 17 $177 −$177 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,139 −$1,139 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,035 −$1,035 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $399 −$399 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $617 −$617 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B Jun 17 $648 −$648 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 17 $541 −$541 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $550 −$550 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $182 −$182 -100%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $784 −$784 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $177 −$177 -100%
LoL: Winthrop University vs Maryville University (BO5) - North America Jun 17 $37 −$283 -770%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 71¢ $710 25m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 68¢ $362 46m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 68¢ $68 46m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 68¢ $47 46m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 68¢ $47 46m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 68¢ $156 47m
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff SELL Paula Badosa 100¢ $864 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff SELL Paula Badosa 100¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff SELL Paula Badosa 100¢ $133 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 16¢ $6 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 16¢ $163 1h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 13¢ $1 1h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 13¢ $2 1h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 13¢ $1 1h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 13¢ $1 1h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 13¢ $1 1h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 13¢ $7 1h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 13¢ $1 1h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 13¢ $1 1h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 13¢ $1 1h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 13¢ $1 1h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 13¢ $45 1h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 13¢ $7 1h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 13¢ $1 1h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 13¢ $1 1h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 13¢ $15 1h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 13¢ $1 1h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 13¢ $7 1h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 13¢ $45 1h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 13¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,427.93 · official $2,427.93 (match) · 3500 history records