Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:43:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
03 0x03f5…cce3 politics 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,228 (-2%) realized −$1,228 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%8W / 80L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$785per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$17
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$42
other 40% −$1,146
sports 4% −$17
economics 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 1% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 27 -3.8% -13.0% 7% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 88 -1.5% -10.9% 9% 5% -11.2%
all 88 -1.5% -10.9% 9% 5% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 5% -11.2%
10% -19.4% 5% -19.7%
15% -27.2% 5% -27.4%
20% -34.3% 5% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,235) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$17 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,228
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses8 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage80d
Avg bet$785
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 19 $891 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $344 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $304 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,655 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,224 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $838 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $2,082 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $773 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $820 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,804 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 04 $66 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 04 $403 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $1,630 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,745 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,762 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $409 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $761 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 20 $23 +$21 +93%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $220 $0 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $138 −$3 -2%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $234 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $229 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $531 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $1,457 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $257 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 16 $239 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $265 $0 -0%
2026 Balance of Power: Other May 15 $289 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 15 $248 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $245 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $240 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $300 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $1,472 −$2 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $271 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $211 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $247 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $889 1h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $891 3h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $343 20h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $344 24h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $304 24h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $304 27h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $333 29h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $334 31h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $875 5d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $877 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $837 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $838 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $688 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $689 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $760 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $761 7d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $772 8d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $773 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $725 12d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $726 12d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $819 12d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $820 12d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $715 13d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $716 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $762 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $763 14d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $799 14d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $800 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $906 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $907 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 263 history records