Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03f5…a8d5 world 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$9 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%30W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$52
14 days+$107
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$30
crypto 21% −$63
other 14% +$82
tech 7% −$1
politics 2% −$10
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -34.2% -40.5% 43% 43% +3.1%
≤30d 26 -22.3% -29.7% 35% 31% -9.3%
≤90d 85 -18.5% -26.3% 35% 29% -10.3%
all 85 -18.5% -26.3% 35% 29% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 29% -10.3%
10% -33.3% 24% -18.9%
15% -39.8% 21% -26.7%
20% -45.7% 15% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$10 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses30 / 55
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage43d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $126 +$50 +40%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $89 +$41 +46%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 22 $74 +$10 +13%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $51 −$20 -39%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $48 +$61 +126%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 15 $27 −$1 -3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 15 $8 −$3 -36%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 12 $9 −$3 -28%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $30 −$16 -53%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $65 −$36 -55%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-Jun Jun 09 $20 +$6 +30%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 09 $30 +$9 +30%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 03 $36 −$2 -6%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $33 −$26 -79%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 29 $9 −$3 -32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $48 −$30 -63%
Will Vance say "Nuclear" during Air Force Academy Address? May 28 $3 +$1 +37%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J May 26 $10 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 26 $20 +$3 +16%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 26 $15 +$7 +48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 26 $40 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 25 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 24 $6 −$4 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 24 $6 −$4 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? May 24 $10 −$6 -65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? May 24 $15 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $25 +$1 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $25 +$2 +10%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 24 $5 $0 -4%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? May 24 $5 $0 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $10 −$4 -39%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 24 $6 +$1 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $128 −$20 -16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 24 $74 −$28 -38%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 24 $4 +$4 +108%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? May 23 $10 +$4 +41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 23 $15 −$11 -71%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 23 $60 −$50 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $126 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 26h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $89 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 54¢ $84 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No $1 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 11¢ $4 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 37¢ $19 8d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 11d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 30¢ $26 11d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 38¢ $27 11d
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? SELL Anthropic 74¢ $26 11d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 11d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes $5 11d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes $8 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $7 14d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 14d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 15d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 46¢ $74 16d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $31 16d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $14 16d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? SELL Yes $29 16d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes $40 17d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes $20 17d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes $5 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.45 · official $57.46 (match) · 223 history records