Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03f5…e02d other 106 markets active 3h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%40W / 65L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$19
14 days+$25
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$35
sports 31% +$1
other 21% −$84
politics 4% +$1
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% +$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.8% -10.3% 50% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 30 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 7% -9.0%
≤90d 42 +0.4% -9.2% 40% 5% -9.8%
all 105 -0.7% -10.1% 38% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 4% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 3% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses40 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage487d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $376 +$20 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $258 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $13 $0 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $193 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $32 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $52 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $76 −$12 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $202 +$2 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $194 +$9 +5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $214 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $101 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $19 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $636 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $54 +$6 +11%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $188 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $298 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $282 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $905 +$2 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $711 −$8 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $188 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $57 +$6 +10%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $169 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $111 −$14 -13%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $302 +$3 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $169 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $190 −$24 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $176 +$46 +26%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $174 +$2 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $236 −$1 -1%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $323 −$1 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $134 +$2 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $191 −$1 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,077 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,020 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $3 $0 +8%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $1,397 −$81 -6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $193 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 19 $262 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,051 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $1,573 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $53 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 18 $6 −$4 -56%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 31 $2 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 31 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $31 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 31 $25 $0 -0%
Harvard international students ban ended before August? Jul 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $182 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $180 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $15 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $18 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $32 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $64 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $53 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $5 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $135 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $193 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $28 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $34 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $159 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $15 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $178 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $52 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $52 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 21¢ $21 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 21¢ $33 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 21¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.53 · official $0.00 (match) · 439 history records