Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:13:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03fa…4911 crypto 275 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$122 (+1%) realized +$122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%70W / 203L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$233est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$180
7 days−$255
14 days+$390
30 days+$365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$293
crypto 24% −$642
other 9% −$361
world 1% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -47.1% -52.2% 27% 27% -36.7%
≤30d 41 -6.3% -15.2% 22% 22% +11.1%
≤90d 260 -24.0% -31.3% 24% 22% -20.2%
all 273 -20.8% -28.4% 26% 24% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 24% -18.9%
10% -35.2% 23% -26.7%
15% -41.5% 21% -33.8%
20% -47.2% 19% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$31 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses70 / 203
Est. fees paid−$233
Open positions0
Markets (closed)273 / 275
History coverage142d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 273 Trades
no open positions (138 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $114 −$110 -96%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $71 −$56 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -84%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $46 +$32 +70%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $41 −$40 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $61 +$81 +131%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $70 −$39 -55%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $122 +$41 +34%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $94 +$59 +62%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 −$30 -77%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $81 −$73 -90%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $93 −$91 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $44 +$812 +1843%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$15 -60%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $35 −$34 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6PM ET Jun 03 $21 −$20 -94%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $59 −$58 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $47 +$144 +303%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $78 −$76 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 02 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 02 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 28 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 28 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 28 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 28 $16 +$8 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 28 $6 −$6 -95%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 28 $76 +$112 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 19 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $77 +$128 +165%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $131 +$47 +36%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 17 $133 −$100 -76%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 16 $177 +$62 +35%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 16 $42 +$35 +83%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 16 $51 −$18 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 28m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 53m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 3¢ $15 54m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $98 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 15¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: BUY 2¢ $5 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $46 18h
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Panama vs. Croa BUY 2¢ $4 20h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $45 20h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 41¢ $142 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $61 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $164 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $122 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $29 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $54 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $57 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $99 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $37 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $32 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 688 history records