Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:08:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
03 0x03fc…c127 crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$64 (+12%) realized +$35 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$33
other 24% +$33
politics 6% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +10.8% +0.2% 57% 57% +2.9%
≤30d 7 +10.8% +0.2% 57% 57% +2.9%
≤90d 7 +10.8% +0.2% 57% 57% +2.9%
all 7 +10.8% +0.2% 57% 57% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 57% +2.9%
10% -9.4% 57% -7.0%
15% -18.1% 43% -16.0%
20% -26.2% 43% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$75 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%? No 5¢ 10¢ $30 $59 +$29 (+95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $126 +$33 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$242 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $158 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $126 2h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY No 5¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.54 · official $58.54 (match) · 13 history records