Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0403…c640 other 1079 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,806 (-3%) realized −$7,806 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1066W / 11L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$15
14 days+$19
30 days−$925
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$6,948
other 29% −$900
weather 8% +$18
sports 4% +$16
tech 1% +$4
world 0% +$1
politics 0% +$1
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 77 -7.1% -15.9% 92% 0% -13.8%
≤90d 488 -0.9% -10.3% 98% 0% -10.2%
all 1077 -0.0% -9.6% 99% 0% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -12.2%
10% -18.2% 0% -20.6%
15% -26.1% 0% -28.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$973 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$7,806
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1066 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1077 / 1079
History coverage165d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1077 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 100¢ 95¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $693 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $456 $0 +0%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $700 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $311 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C or higher on June Jun 16 $370 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $240 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $260 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $320 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $380 +$1 +0%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $690 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C or below on June 1 Jun 11 $680 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $680 +$1 +0%
Will "Swapped" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will more than 410 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or higher on June 7? Jun 08 $640 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 6? Jun 07 $480 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 94°F or higher on June 6? Jun 07 $190 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $640 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2PM ET Jun 04 $660 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $350 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $320 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 2? Jun 03 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 2? Jun 03 $260 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 1? Jun 02 $430 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 1? Jun 02 $90 $0 +0%
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $150 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 30? May 31 $500 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: CSDIILIT vs Mousquetaires (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: ENCE Academy vs WW Team (BO3) - European Pro League Se May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Rocket League: Karmine Corp vs Spacestation Gaming (BO5) - RLCS Major May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 15? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-22? May 31 $1,260 −$954 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 68°F or higher on May 29? May 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 29? May 30 $440 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on May 29? May 30 $180 $0 +0%
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $3 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $420 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $700 19h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $370 46h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $311 46h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $240 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $60 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $40 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $320 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $260 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $280 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $60 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $300 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $342 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $30 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $75 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $100 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $111 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $690 5d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C or below on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $680 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.89 · official $2.89 (match) · 2978 history records