Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:55:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0404…4719 weather 1651 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$120 (+0%) realized +$117 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate91%1514W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$697now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$888
7 days−$849
14 days−$814
30 days−$799
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 44% −$94
crypto 39% −$138
other 11% −$13
sports 3% +$19
world 1% +$12
tech 1% +$2
finance 0% +$5
politics 0% −$8
economics 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 173 -19.7% -27.3% 73% 9% -30.3%
≤30d 705 -6.0% -14.9% 89% 6% -14.3%
≤90d 1663 -3.5% -12.7% 91% 7% -12.2%
all 1663 -3.5% -12.7% 91% 7% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 7% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 2% -20.6%
15% -28.7% 1% -28.3%
20% -35.7% 1% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$697
Realized+$117
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1514 / 149
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions36
Markets (closed)1663 / 1651
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 1663 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? No 100¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22? No 97¢ 97¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 23? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 21? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 23? No 99¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22? No 96¢ 95¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 21? No 99¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 21? No 97¢ 97¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? No 98¢ 97¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 23? No 93¢ 92¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 13? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 7? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Jun 21 $0 +$1 +807%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $175 −$175 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ma Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 16? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Solana dip to $110 January 26-1? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 24? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 26? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 12? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "War Machine" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 January 26-1? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on January 26? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ma Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on January 18? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 January 19-25? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. UCF Knights Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 7? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-22? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 January 26-1? Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin ETF Flows on January 16? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 27? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 in January? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.60 on March 16? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on March 28? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on March 29? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Manhattan Jaspers vs. Quinnipiac Bobcats Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on March 13? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on January 31? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Brisbane International: Elena Rybakina vs Karolina Muchova Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 26? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 31? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on March 10? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 26? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $1 $0 +23%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 81¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 85¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 2h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $20 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $30 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $30 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $20 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 98¢ $20 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 15-21? SELL No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $30 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 90¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $696.52 · official $696.52 (match) · 3500 history records