Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0406…ea90 politics 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%8W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$2
sports 20% −$1
other 13% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 0% -9.7%
all 40 -3.7% -12.9% 20% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses8 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage224d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $86 $86 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $91 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8) May 20 $87 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $173 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1 $0 -49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? Mar 07 $89 $0 +0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Mar 02 $88 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 25 $87 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $177 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $89 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 28 $89 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 25 $89 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 24 $90 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 21 $87 +$2 +2%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $89 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 15 $87 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 12 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 08 $86 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 05 $88 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $90 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $88 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 29 $86 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $89 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 23 $87 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 20 $88 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $87 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $89 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 13 $90 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 10 $91 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 06 $89 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 01 $72 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 01 $87 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 30 $2 $0 -17%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 29 $170 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 27 $91 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 23 $88 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 23 $1 $0 -33%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 20 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 12 $90 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $86 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $91 13d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $91 29d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 39d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45d
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8) BUY Yes 100¢ $87 102d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $89 109d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 109d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 112d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY No 100¢ $88 114d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 114d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 116d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 116d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $87 116d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $87 118d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 118d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 119d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 119d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 122d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 140d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 144d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $89 144d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $89 146d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 146d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 147d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $90 148d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $90 150d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 98¢ $88 151d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 96¢ $87 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.93 · official $85.93 (match) · 154 history records