Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:37:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0408…856b crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,098 (+11%) realized +$1,500 · open +$598
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate70%19W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$582per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$3,546now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$54
14 days+$171
30 days+$919
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$2,867
crypto 12% +$490
finance 5% −$997
politics 5% −$571
other 4% −$12
tech 3% +$9
culture 2% +$167
sports 2% −$328
economics 2% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.4% -6.5% 100% 0% -6.4%
≤30d 12 -4.0% -13.1% 75% 33% +5.2%
≤90d 22 -8.2% -16.9% 73% 23% -0.8%
all 27 -12.2% -20.5% 70% 26% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 26% -0.4%
10% -28.1% 22% -9.9%
15% -35.1% 19% -18.6%
20% -41.5% 11% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$576) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$161 vs −$247 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$3,546
Realized+$1,500
Unrealized+$598
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses19 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)27 / 33
History coverage166d
Avg bet$582
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 74¢ 95¢ $1,935 $2,462 +$527 (+27%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? No 24¢ 24¢ $480 $480 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 82¢ 82¢ $410 $409 −$1 (-0%)
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? No 20¢ 32¢ $67 $106 +$39 (+59%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 10¢ 32¢ $26 $87 +$61 (+230%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Yes $30 $2 −$28 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $967 +$33 +3%
Will Solana reach $280 by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $610 +$21 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $192 +$8 +4%
Will Solana reach $100 in June? Jun 18 $941 +$44 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 17 $119 +$43 +36%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 17 $52 +$22 +43%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $393 −$333 -85%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 12 $562 −$559 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 4? Jun 04 $184 +$16 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,095 +$2,101 +68%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 01 $165 +$135 +82%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 31 $894 −$613 -69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $1,870 +$130 +7%
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 20 $367 +$14 +4%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 20 $233 +$229 +98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $55 +$5 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 17 $69 −$44 -65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,882 +$51 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 12 $372 −$366 -98%
Another Canada election called by June 30? May 10 $39 +$3 +7%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 9? May 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $576 +$24 +4%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 28 $476 +$167 +35%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23? Feb 10 $100 +$5 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 10 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan Jan 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jan 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $571 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $1,779 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 82¢ $414 1h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $495 1h
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? SELL No 41¢ $10 3d
Will Solana reach $280 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $110 3d
Will Solana reach $280 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $68 3d
Will Solana reach $280 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $100 3d
Will Solana reach $280 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $187 3d
Will Solana reach $280 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $135 3d
Will Solana reach $280 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $30 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $192 7d
Will Solana reach $280 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 7d
Will Solana reach $100 in June? SELL No 98¢ $927 8d
Will Solana reach $100 in June? SELL No 98¢ $14 8d
Will Solana reach $100 in June? SELL No 98¢ $30 8d
Will Solana reach $100 in June? SELL No 98¢ $14 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 82¢ $162 9d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? SELL Yes 15¢ $30 9d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 9d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 9d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 9d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? SELL Yes 15¢ $18 9d
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY No 97¢ $44 10d
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY No 97¢ $68 10d
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY No 97¢ $98 10d
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY No 97¢ $276 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 58¢ $119 10d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 10d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $54 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,546.41 · official $3,547.71 (match) · 274 history records