Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:16:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x040b…8475 crypto 28 markets active 4d ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate86%24W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$547per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$65
14 days−$65
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% +$33
crypto 7% −$122
other 1% −$12
sports 1% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +13.3% +2.5% 67% 67% -47.7%
≤30d 4 +10.1% -0.4% 75% 50% -35.7%
≤90d 14 -7.6% -16.4% 79% 21% -18.9%
all 28 -3.8% -13.0% 86% 18% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 18% -9.9%
10% -21.3% 7% -18.5%
15% -28.9% 7% -26.4%
20% -35.9% 7% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$49 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses24 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage595d
Avg bet$547
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $106 −$103 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $116 +$10 +9%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $32 +$28 +85%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 07 $70 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 01 $70 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 10 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 20? Apr 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 10 $70 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Mar 29 $64 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 29 $173 +$15 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 29 $82 +$13 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Mar 29 $63 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Mar 29 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11PM ET Mar 29 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Mar 15 $36 +$2 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Mar 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $36 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 1AM ET Feb 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on February 6? Feb 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 19? Jan 19 $27 +$3 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 8? Jan 09 $26 +$1 +4%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 01 $56 −$25 -44%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 30 $42 +$5 +13%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 23 $89 +$7 +8%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $5,823 +$12 +0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 28 $8,026 +$20 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $57 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $49 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 62¢ $19 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 65¢ $125 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 50¢ $97 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 54¢ $1 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 54¢ $32 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $70 46d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $70 62d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $70 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $40 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $15 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $15 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $64 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $32 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $31 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $61 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $49 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $14 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $38 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $3 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $29 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $7 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $18 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $37 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $11 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 338 history records