Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:30:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
04 0x040c…3326 crypto 695 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$62 (+0%) realized +$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%688W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$38
14 days+$56
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$95
other 19% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +2.9% -6.9% 98% 0% -6.8%
≤30d 215 +1.3% -8.3% 99% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 695 +1.0% -8.6% 99% 1% -9.4%
all 695 +1.0% -8.6% 99% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 1% -9.4%
10% -17.4% 1% -18.0%
15% -25.4% 1% -25.9%
20% -32.7% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$37 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses688 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)695 / 695
History coverage55d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 695 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $12 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $19 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $19 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $19 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $19 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $19 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$2 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$8 -55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $14 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $29 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $29 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $13 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 33h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1412 history records