Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:44:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
04 0x040d…1a5e other 543 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$27,963 (-17%) realized −$25,156 · open −$2,807
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate26%227W / 659L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Fees−$932est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$3,282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16,636
7 days−$27,682
14 days−$28,904
30 days−$31,696
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$18,538
sports 38% +$3,118
crypto 4% −$87
world 1% −$1,092
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-45.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 459 -77.0% -79.2% 12% 8% -39.4%
≤30d 574 -62.9% -66.4% 19% 12% -29.2%
≤90d 647 -54.0% -58.4% 24% 13% -26.1%
all 886 -40.0% -45.7% 26% 17% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.7% 17% -26.1%
10% ← realistic here -50.9% 15% -33.2%
15% -55.6% 13% -39.6%
20% -60.0% 12% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -79% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$155 vs −$101 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$3,282
Realized−$25,156
Unrealized−$2,807
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses227 / 659
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$932
Open positions16
Markets (closed)886 / 543
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$300
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 886 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 92¢ 93¢ $861 $866 +$5 (+1%)
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? $3,000 61¢ 46¢ $708 $537 −$171 (-24%)
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 16¢ $1,981 $477 −$1,504 (-76%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 26¢ $321 $405 +$83 (+26%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 64¢ 26¢ $833 $338 −$495 (-59%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $355 $215 −$140 (-40%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 57¢ 24¢ $427 $185 −$242 (-57%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 42¢ 12¢ $473 $133 −$340 (-72%)
Will SD Almeria achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026-27 season? No 38¢ 42¢ $58 $64 +$6 (+11%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026? Yes 64¢ 58¢ $58 $53 −$5 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-39%)
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? $140 4¢ 13¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+185%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 58¢ 58¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 484 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Capitals vs. Flames Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Canucks vs. Oilers Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City vs. Napoli end in a draw? Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 11? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Slovakia vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 1AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 10PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 3PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 12PM ET Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5PM ET Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Islanders vs. Hurricanes Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-01? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Rangers vs. Penguins Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-25? Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 9AM ET Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Senators vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FK Krasnodar vs. FK Rostov end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 12PM ET Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 2AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Stars vs. Blues Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Stars vs. Kings Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9AM ET Jun 19 $268 −$268 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-02-21? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will PEC Zwolle win on 2026-02-22? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 4AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6AM ET Jun 19 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-02-16? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 5PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5PM ET Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Sharks vs. Canucks Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Canucks vs. Wild Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Capitals vs. Oilers Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11AM ET Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 9PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-02-14? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Kraken vs. Ducks Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Austria vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 93¢ $12 4m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 93¢ $31 4m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 93¢ $16 5m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 92¢ $920 23m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 58¢ $3 26m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,778 50m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7,213 50m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 61¢ $2,784 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 61¢ $73 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 61¢ $12 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 61¢ $152 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 61¢ $6 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 61¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 9¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 9¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 9¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 9¢ $8 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 37¢ $377 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 38¢ $380 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 39¢ $23 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 39¢ $365 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 9¢ $2 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 40¢ $0 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 40¢ $399 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 9¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,282.45 · official $3,283.38 (match) · 3500 history records