Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:02:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0412…d9c2 crypto 521 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d only
✗ bot/MM pace (115 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$667 (+6%) realized +$678 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate62%310W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day115.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$358
7 days−$330
14 days−$318
30 days−$408
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$427
weather 3% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (115 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -0.9% -10.3% 63% 16% -35.5%
≤30d 497 -0.5% -10.0% 62% 19% -13.0%
≤90d 497 -0.5% -10.0% 62% 19% -13.0%
all 497 -0.5% -10.0% 62% 19% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 19% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 7% -21.4%
15% -26.4% 3% -29.0%
20% -33.7% 2% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$678
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses310 / 187
Open positions24
Markets (closed)497 / 521
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day115.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 497 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 17? Yes 49¢ 49¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 66¢ 98¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? No 76¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? Yes 27¢ 34¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? No 70¢ 52¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Yes 41¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 69¢ 50¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? Yes 40¢ 43¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 33¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Yes 34¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 16? Yes 16¢ 34¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+109%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 17? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 17? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? Yes 30¢ 8¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 29¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.22 · official $57.22 (match) · 3500 history records