Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:51:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0413…a2df crypto 210 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (136 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$381 (-8%) realized −$381 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%57W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day135.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$512
7 days−$537
14 days−$557
30 days−$557
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$557
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (136 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 197 -17.6% -25.4% 27% 27% -19.9%
≤30d 210 -17.3% -25.2% 27% 27% -20.0%
≤90d 210 -17.3% -25.2% 27% 27% -20.0%
all 210 -17.3% -25.2% 27% 27% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.2% 27% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 25% -27.7%
15% -38.9% 19% -34.7%
20% -44.9% 16% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$15 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$381
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses57 / 153
Open positions0
Markets (closed)210 / 210
History coverage8d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day135.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 210 Trades
no open positions (105 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $34 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $38 +$202 +531%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $106 −$104 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $134 −$134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $152 +$48 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$112 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $60 +$40 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $77 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $84 +$92 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $61 −$17 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $147 +$53 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $203 +$76 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $71 −$59 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $34 −$26 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $164 +$36 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $180 −$27 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $129 +$16 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $34 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 24 $41 +$86 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $126 +$232 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $108 +$108 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $29 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $69 +$83 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $80 −$77 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $96 −$94 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $53 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $59 +$22 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$14 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $48 +$20 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $44 +$16 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $39 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $16 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $16 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $7 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $15 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $18 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $16 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $17 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $34 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $240 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1213 history records