Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
04 0x0418…d2e8 crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$524 (+44%) realized +$390 · open +$133
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$390
sports 17% +$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.8% -12.0% 57% 43% +27.5%
≤30d 7 -2.8% -12.0% 57% 43% +27.5%
≤90d 7 -2.8% -12.0% 57% 43% +27.5%
all 7 -2.8% -12.0% 57% 43% +27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 43% +27.5%
10% -20.5% 43% +15.3%
15% -28.1% 43% +4.2%
20% -35.2% 29% -6.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +41% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$28 · ×4.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.6 per $1 lost it wins $5.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized+$390
Unrealized+$133
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 60¢ 100¢ $200 $333 +$133 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $409 +$176 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $105 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$54 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$88 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $207 +$207 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.17 · official $333.17 (match) · 20 history records