Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:26:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
04 0x041b…f702 crypto 193 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d only
✗ bot/MM pace (113 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,237 (+8%) realized +$2,237 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%101W / 89L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day113.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$11
30 days+$1,655
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,647
world 1% +$12
tech 0% +$2
economics 0% −$2
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (113 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 190 +3.8% -6.1% 53% 48% -4.3%
≤90d 190 +3.8% -6.1% 53% 48% -4.3%
all 190 +3.8% -6.1% 53% 48% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover113.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 48% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 47% -13.4%
15% -23.3% 43% -21.8%
20% -30.8% 38% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$110 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized+$2,237
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses101 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)190 / 193
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$150
Trades / day113.4
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes 28¢ 17¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $7 +$11 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 31 $191 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 30 $134 +$50 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 30 $630 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 30 $521 +$46 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 30 $134 +$83 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 30 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 30 $186 +$142 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 30 $204 +$71 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 30 $185 −$179 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 30 $135 −$130 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 30 $103 +$55 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 30 $282 −$270 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 30 $94 −$90 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 30 $155 +$127 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 30 $258 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 30 $93 +$101 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 30 $207 +$171 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 30 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 30 $206 +$152 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 30 $540 −$523 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 30 $586 −$565 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 30 $442 −$432 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 30 $288 −$284 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 30 $356 +$231 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 30 $272 +$158 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 30 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 30 $105 +$184 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 30 $177 +$289 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 30 $158 +$155 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 30 $74 −$70 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 30 $205 +$118 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 30 $83 +$128 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 30 $153 +$516 +337%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 30 $144 +$96 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 30 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 30 $273 +$267 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 30 $163 +$80 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 30 $164 +$100 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 30 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 30 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 30 $61 +$15 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 30 $246 −$47 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 30 $204 +$92 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 30 $224 −$16 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 30 $65 +$72 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 30 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6AM ET May 30 $177 −$169 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 30 $381 +$119 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 30 $83 −$80 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $80 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $60 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $21 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $62 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $130 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $68 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $103 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $134 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $30 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $32 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $156 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.45 · official $221.45 (match) · 3500 history records