Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:02:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x041c…fd10
other · 241 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$55 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$65 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)241 / 241
History coverage132d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 0 History 241 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$22
14 days−$30
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $738 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $1,059 −$2 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $581 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $590 −$2 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $191 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $362 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $1,077 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $357 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $827 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $88 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $275 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $758 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $89 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,246 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $228 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $517 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $215 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $342 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $547 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $93 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? May 29 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 28 $168 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $318 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $196 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $440 −$1 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 25 $814 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 24 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $434 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 23 $225 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 23 $98 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 21 $139 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $99 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% −$38
sports 24% −$24
economics 8% −$13
politics 8% −$6
culture 6% −$7
world 5% −$4
crypto 4% +$28
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $85 1h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $85 2h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $85 4h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $86 6h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $86 7h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $86 8h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $86 10h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $86 13h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $86 13h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $86 15h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $86 25h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $86 26h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $86 28h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $86 29h
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 100¢ $86 40h
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 100¢ $87 42h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $87 46h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $87 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $87 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $87 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $87 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $87 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $87 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $87 3d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $87 3d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $87 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $87 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $88 3d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $88 4d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $88 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 54 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.0% -9.6% 3% 1% -9.6%
all 241 -0.0% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1318 history records