Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:09:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x041c…3056
crypto · 880 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,094 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,061 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized−$3,061
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses438 / 441
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)879 / 880
History coverage42d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day49.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 879 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$84
14 days−$84
30 days−$3,580
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 65¢ 86¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $78 −$52 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$30 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$11 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$14 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$13 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$20 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $82 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$12 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$8 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$3,073
world 0% +$20
other 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $9 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $17 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $7 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $9 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +2.0% -7.8% 63% 44% -16.4%
≤30d 687 -16.2% -24.2% 45% 39% -26.2%
≤90d 879 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 43% -21.2%
all 879 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 43% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover49.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 43% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 36% -28.8%
15% -32.5% 30% -35.7%
20% -39.1% 25% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.37 · official $19.27 · 2908 history records