Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:54:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0422…ae21 sports 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,877 (-22%) realized −$1,908 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%24W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$413now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days−$1,463
14 days−$1,484
30 days−$1,931
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$2,235
other 26% +$569
crypto 2% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -24.6% -31.8% 46% 46% -32.1%
≤30d 46 -24.4% -31.6% 48% 46% -32.3%
≤90d 48 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 48% -31.1%
all 51 -15.4% -23.5% 47% 45% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 45% -31.6%
10% -30.8% 43% -38.2%
15% -37.5% 35% -44.1%
20% -43.6% 27% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$142 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$413
Realized−$1,908
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses24 / 27
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 59
History coverage96d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $216 $251 +$35 (+16%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 56¢ $115 $113 −$2 (-2%)
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 51¢ 49¢ $51 $49 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $61 +$39 +65%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 +$5 +85%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 19 $444 −$440 -99%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $302 +$69 +23%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $203 −$199 -98%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $48 −$47 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $202 +$76 +38%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $303 −$300 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $96 +$55 +57%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $0 $0 +194%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $678 +$288 +42%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $68 +$32 +47%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $85 +$65 +76%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $25 +$4 +18%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $469 −$469 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $217 −$216 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $660 +$340 +52%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $26 +$21 +82%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $152 +$89 +58%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $146 +$32 +22%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $65 +$37 +57%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $118 −$118 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $365 −$364 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $304 +$296 +97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $28 +$22 +75%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 −$192 -95%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $33 −$33 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $167 +$133 +79%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $94 +$6 +6%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $201 +$65 +32%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $218 +$82 +38%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $419 −$416 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $302 +$88 +29%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 28 $6 +$12 +203%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-03-21? Mar 28 $23 +$76 +333%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-03-21? Mar 19 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $15 16m
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $31 17m
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 18m
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $57 30m
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $59 41m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $61 1h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND BUY 24¢ $20 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $5 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $4 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $11 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $1 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 44¢ $102 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 40¢ $102 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 13¢ $103 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $84 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $25 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $28 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $412.97 · official $432.99 · 242 history records