Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:02:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0424…f722 world 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%2W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$5
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$1
other 30% −$3
politics 19% −$4
sports 11% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.3% -9.8% 5% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 56 -1.0% -10.4% 4% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 56 -1.0% -10.4% 4% 0% -10.3%
all 56 -1.0% -10.4% 4% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -10.3%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses2 / 54
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage18d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, Jun 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31 Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $31 $0 -0%
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-Ju Jun 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? Jun 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? Jun 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr Jun 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? Jun 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $46 −$1 -2%
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? Jun 21 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $40 $0 +0%
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $57 −$2 -4%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Jun 21 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? Jun 21 $4 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31? Jun 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 21 $12 $0 +0%
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30? Jun 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 20 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Croatia finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 20 $6 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 20 $37 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will the median home value in the US be between $431,000 and $433,000 Jun 14 $21 $0 +2%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? Jun 14 $28 $0 -1%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the US be between $429,000 and $431,000 Jun 14 $52 $0 +0%
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? Jun 14 $6 $0 -4%
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mitch Marner score the most goals in a single game during the 202 Jun 14 $44 $0 -1%
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on June 30? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $25 $0 -2%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? Jun 12 $46 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance attend NATO Summit? Jun 11 $46 $0 +0%
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31? Jun 11 $8 −$2 -31%
Barbora Krejcikova vs. Hanne Vandewinkel: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $4 $0 -1%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 Fren Jun 10 $16 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, SELL Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31 SELL No 19¢ $5 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31 BUY No 19¢ $5 1h
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? SELL No 92¢ $32 1h
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? BUY No 92¢ $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $20 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $20 4h
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-Ju SELL No 26¢ $4 11h
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-Ju BUY No 26¢ $4 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $11 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $12 19h
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? SELL No 93¢ $14 32h
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? BUY No 93¢ $14 32h
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? SELL Yes $3 34h
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? BUY Yes $1 34h
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? BUY Yes $1 34h
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? BUY Yes $1 34h
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr SELL Yes 13¢ $6 37h
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr BUY Yes 13¢ $5 37h
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr BUY Yes 13¢ $2 37h
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $4 40h
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $4 40h
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $15 41h
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $15 41h
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 4d
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 174 history records