Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
04 0x0426…1aff crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate93%13W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 93% 36% -7.0%
≤30d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 93% 36% -7.0%
≤90d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 93% 36% -7.0%
all 14 -0.5% -10.0% 93% 36% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 36% -7.0%
10% -18.6% 0% -15.9%
15% -26.5% 0% -24.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$41 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses13 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $122 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $105 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 24 $114 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $43 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 24 $178 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $76 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $74 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $23 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $113 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $68 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $63 +$7 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $78 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $16 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $114 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $43 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $178 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $36 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $41 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $76 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $74 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $18 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $113 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $68 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $63 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records