Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:45:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
04 0x042d…0720 other 161 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$339 (+3%) realized +$286 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%59W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$2,308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days+$386
14 days+$538
30 days+$736
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$1,315
other 48% −$952
politics 3% +$18
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +5.5% -4.5% 51% 45% -3.6%
≤30d 107 +6.2% -3.9% 50% 44% -1.4%
≤90d 119 +1.8% -7.9% 50% 43% -6.3%
all 119 +1.8% -7.9% 50% 43% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 43% -6.3%
10% -16.7% 34% -15.2%
15% -24.7% 29% -23.4%
20% -32.1% 23% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$39 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$2,308
Realized+$286
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses59 / 60
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions42
Markets (closed)119 / 161
History coverage45d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 53¢ 96¢ $240 $440 +$200 (+84%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $314 $330 +$16 (+5%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 22¢ $311 $214 −$98 (-31%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 45¢ 61¢ $136 $183 +$47 (+34%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $155 $142 −$13 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $105 $118 +$14 (+13%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $92 $102 +$10 (+11%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? No 83¢ 80¢ $83 $80 −$2 (-3%)
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $72 $79 +$7 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $62 $75 +$13 (+21%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $49 $50 +$2 (+3%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 46¢ $62 $46 −$16 (-27%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $64 $44 −$20 (-32%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $37 $42 +$4 (+12%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+35%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $32 $35 +$4 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $45 $33 −$12 (-26%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $29 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $25 $26 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $31 $24 −$7 (-22%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-5%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 19¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-8%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close Jun 21 $109 +$39 +36%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $355 −$37 -10%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $955 +$46 +5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $107 +$42 +40%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $64 +$6 +9%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $42 +$108 +257%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 20 $118 +$82 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $99 +$51 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 20 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $32 −$20 -64%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $201 +$46 +23%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $78 +$22 +28%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $164 +$36 +22%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $61 +$39 +65%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $22 −$9 -42%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $44 −$44 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $206 +$161 +78%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $660 −$280 -42%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $76 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $42 $0 -0%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 19 $59 +$41 +70%
Canada vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $48 +$52 +108%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $38 +$62 +163%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $67 +$33 +49%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $16 +$37 +223%
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $35 +$15 +43%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $143 −$143 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $153 +$47 +30%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $187 +$8 +4%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $4 $0 +14%
Czechia to win the second half? Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $34 +$16 +49%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $42 +$58 +138%
England to win the second half? Jun 17 $46 +$54 +117%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $194 +$106 +55%
DR Congo to win the second half? Jun 17 $23 +$4 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 4¢ $4 14m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 78¢ $201 23m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 21¢ $2 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 21¢ $19 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Paper Rex 80¢ $101 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 19¢ $13 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 19¢ $6 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 79¢ $79 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY Phantom 72¢ $47 4h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY Phantom 50¢ $15 4h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close SELL Phantom 38¢ $28 4h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY FOKUS 70¢ $14 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 4h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY Phantom 33¢ $33 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $24 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 1¢ $1 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 95¢ $100 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $100 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $100 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $27 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $27 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 70¢ $70 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $35 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $16 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $3 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 45¢ $45 8h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 32¢ $27 8h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 32¢ $5 8h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $20 8h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $46 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,307.75 · official $2,307.87 (match) · 642 history records