Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:04:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x042d…0b81 sports 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$291 (-13%) realized −$290 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%30W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$30
14 days+$54
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$295
economics 3% −$1
world 3% $0
culture 2% $0
other 2% $0
tech 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +32.8% +20.1% 67% 67% +20.1%
≤30d 11 +14.1% +3.3% 73% 73% +6.4%
≤90d 17 -4.5% -13.6% 59% 59% -15.4%
all 58 -7.3% -16.1% 52% 52% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 52% -23.5%
10% -24.1% 50% -30.8%
15% -31.5% 40% -37.5%
20% -38.2% 34% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$33 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$323
Realized−$290
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses30 / 28
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions9
Markets (closed)58 / 67
History coverage253d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 91¢ 95¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 87¢ 86¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Manuel Torres 51¢ 50¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 48¢ 48¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Main Card) Shara Magomedov 78¢ 76¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Giga Chikadze vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, P Jun 21 $30 −$1 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $30 +$19 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $30 +$12 +40%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $30 +$4 +13%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $30 +$16 +52%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $17 +$4 +26%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $30 +$7 +23%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $30 +$15 +50%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 16 $40 +$24 +60%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 04 $40 −$40 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai May 04 $40 +$11 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 02 $30 −$5 -18%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $41 −$40 -98%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $40 −$39 -98%
UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Dec 03 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) Nov 30 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Spivac vs. Gaziev (Heavyweight, Main Card) Nov 25 $30 −$4 -12%
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Almabayev (Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 25 $30 +$15 +52%
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Menifield (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Nov 25 $30 +$14 +47%
UFC Fight Night: Topuria vs. Almakhan (Bantamweight, Prelims) Nov 25 $180 −$180 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 22 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 18 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $15 +$19 +127%
UFC 322: Kopylov vs. Rodrigues (Middleweight, Prelims) Nov 16 $30 +$21 +70%
UFC 322: Vieira vs. Nickal (Middleweight, Prelims) Nov 15 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC 322: Mariscal vs. Sabatini (Featherweight, Early Prelims) Nov 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Lions vs. Commanders Nov 11 $40 +$10 +25%
Spread: Colts (-6.5) Nov 11 $40 +$35 +89%
Raiders vs. Broncos Nov 09 $40 +$9 +24%
Barcelos vs. Simon Nov 09 $39 +$61 +156%
Steelers vs. Chargers: O/U 44.5 Nov 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Ravens vs. Vikings: O/U 48.5 Nov 06 $80 −$80 -100%
Giants vs. Bears: O/U 47.5 Nov 05 $40 −$40 -100%
49ers vs. Giants: O/U 48.5 Nov 05 $40 +$35 +89%
Broncos vs. Texans: O/U 39.5 Nov 05 $40 +$43 +106%
Spread: Seahawks (-3.5) Nov 05 $40 +$45 +113%
Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 47.5 Oct 29 $20 +$20 +96%
Chiefs vs. Bills Oct 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Lions (-8.5) Oct 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Patriots (-6.5) Oct 27 $22 +$18 +85%
Giants vs. Eagles: O/U 44.5 Oct 27 $19 +$21 +108%
Klein vs. Rebecki Oct 27 $40 +$33 +82%
Spread: Broncos (-3.5) Oct 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Dern vs. Jandiroba Oct 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Bears vs. Ravens Oct 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Vikings vs. Chargers: O/U 44.5 Oct 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Bengals (-6.5) Oct 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $36 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 48¢ $37 1h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 87¢ $36 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 1h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $36 1h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $37 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 78¢ $36 1h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 78¢ $36 1h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 51¢ $37 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 61¢ $30 4d
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 71¢ $30 4d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 66¢ $30 11d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 88¢ $30 11d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 65¢ $30 12d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 81¢ $30 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $30 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $17 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 43¢ $20 12d
UFC Fight Night: Giga Chikadze vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, P BUY Vinicius Oliveira 51¢ $30 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $30 12d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 62¢ $40 52d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Tatsuro Taira 60¢ $40 52d
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, BUY Jack Della Maddalena 50¢ $41 54d
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai BUY Quillan Salkilld 78¢ $40 54d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Jirí Procházka 50¢ $40 74d
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Ricky Simon 61¢ $30 89d
UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Pantoja 70¢ $30 204d
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) BUY Dvalishvili 78¢ $30 207d
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Muhammad 29¢ $10 215d
UFC Fight Night: Topuria vs. Almakhan (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Almakhan 45¢ $120 216d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $323.13 · official $323.13 (match) · 110 history records