Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:52:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
04 0x042f…e743 crypto 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 629d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$298 (-0%) realized −$296 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate73%114W / 43L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$607per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$208
7 days+$214
14 days+$199
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$714
other 4% −$118
world 2% −$59
sports 2% −$68
politics 0% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +13.0% +2.2% 100% 12% -6.8%
≤30d 36 -12.1% -20.5% 83% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 99 -11.9% -20.3% 83% 3% -11.0%
all 157 -6.3% -15.2% 73% 10% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 10% -10.5%
10% -23.4% 7% -19.1%
15% -30.8% 7% -26.9%
20% -37.5% 6% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$1,024) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$62 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

629d coverage
Net worth$1,227
Realized−$296
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses114 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)157 / 158
History coverage629d
Avg bet$607
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,229 $1,227 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $822 +$2 +0%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? A Jun 28 $200 +$206 +103%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $1,021 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $1,020 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1,019 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,003 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,016 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,015 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,010 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,009 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $939 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,001 +$6 +1%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,062 +$1 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $109 −$61 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,122 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,121 +$1 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $246 +$29 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,099 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,139 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,138 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $881 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,085 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,084 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,083 +$1 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,154 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,153 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,151 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $1,150 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $1,148 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 29 $1,139 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 28 $1,146 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $1,142 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $1,138 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $134 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $1,137 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 22 $1,130 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $1,128 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $1,125 +$3 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $113 +$57 +51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $1,065 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17? May 17 $1,064 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16? May 16 $1,060 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 15 $1,049 +$11 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,229 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $341 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $470 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 35h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 49¢ $200 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $255 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,021 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,020 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,019 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $998 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,016 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,015 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $15 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $995 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1,009 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $11 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $922 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 14d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 14d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 14d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 14d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $64 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1,062 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 16¢ $48 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $109 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1,122 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,227.23 · official $1,227.23 (match) · 391 history records