Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:00:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x0430…bb31
world · 193 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$136 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$148 · open −$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized+$148
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses41 / 148
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)189 / 193
History coverage133d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 4 History 189 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$21
14 days+$203
30 days+$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14? No 73¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? No 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Rico 3¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 12 $8 +$15 +187%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $10 +$7 +69%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 09 $11 $0 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $10 $0 -1%
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $8 +$204 +2688%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $15 +$63 +409%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 19? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? Apr 14 $1 +$5 +483%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 14 $10 $0 +4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 14 $10 $0 -2%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 12 $7 +$8 +118%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 10? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $2 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 8? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 11? Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 09 $10 +$8 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on April 9? Apr 09 $10 +$14 +136%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026 Apr 08 $14 −$11 -75%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 08 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026? Apr 08 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 08 $2 −$1 -35%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Keyd (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Sou Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Magic Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 6? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 11? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Plastic Egg" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 39% −$127
other 17% +$70
crypto 17% −$45
politics 15% −$43
sports 4% +$105
weather 4% +$2
finance 2% +$196
culture 1% −$14
economics 1% −$3
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 12¢ $22 1h
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $17 24h
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $8 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $11 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $11 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $9 5d
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY No 94¢ $2 6d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 7d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 9d
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? BUY No 8¢ $2 10d
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 11d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $212 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 13d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 1¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +49.1% +34.9% 40% 40% +28.8%
≤30d 18 +113.6% +93.3% 22% 22% +66.2%
≤90d 158 -24.5% -31.7% 16% 15% -9.1%
all 189 -13.5% -21.7% 22% 19% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 19% -9.8%
10% -29.2% 18% -18.4%
15% -36.0% 18% -26.3%
20% -42.3% 18% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.57 · official $4.57 (match) · 670 history records