Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:12:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0431…30a5 crypto 313 markets active 3h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate66%206W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day74.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$24
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$24
other 11% −$21
world 4% $0
sports 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -14.5% -22.6% 64% 40% -13.0%
≤30d 313 -7.4% -16.2% 66% 44% -11.6%
≤90d 313 -7.4% -16.2% 66% 44% -11.6%
all 313 -7.4% -16.2% 66% 44% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 44% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 31% -20.1%
15% -31.6% 17% -27.8%
20% -38.3% 10% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses206 / 107
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)313 / 313
History coverage12d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day74.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 313 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +29%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$7 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$5 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$8 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$6 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1153 history records