Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0431…ca12 sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$73 (-21%) realized −$45 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$22
world 37% −$48
politics 13% −$20
weather 10% +$1
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -21.1% -28.6% 33% 13% -23.2%
≤30d 15 -21.1% -28.6% 33% 13% -23.2%
≤90d 15 -21.1% -28.6% 33% 13% -23.2%
all 15 -21.1% -28.6% 33% 13% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 13% -23.2%
10% -35.5% 7% -30.5%
15% -41.7% 7% -37.2%
20% -47.4% 7% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$45
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)15 / 21
History coverage3d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump hug anyone at UFC Freedom 250? No 54¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 21¢ 22¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner B8 44¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $3 $0 -6%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $20 −$1 -4%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $50 +$34 +68%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $90 −$43 -48%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $4 $0 -5%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$6 -31%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $26 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $30 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 25m
Will Trump hug anyone at UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 54¢ $10 33m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $5 39m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $5 51m
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 37¢ $0 51m
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 40¢ $1 58m
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 39¢ $19 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 39¢ $10 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 39¢ $10 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 37¢ $3 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 38¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $84 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $50 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $47 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $15 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $4 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Aiemann Zahabi 20¢ $4 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler 19¢ $5 6h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $15 6h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $14 6h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $30 6h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $5 40h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 18¢ $5 40h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $11 40h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 44¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.31 · official $40.31 (match) · 46 history records