Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:42:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0431…8874 crypto 181 markets active 0h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$634 (-5%) realized −$598 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate53%95W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$793
sports 5% +$73
weather 4% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +19.5% +8.1% 65% 52% -7.0%
≤30d 23 +19.5% +8.1% 65% 52% -7.0%
≤90d 23 +19.5% +8.1% 65% 52% -7.0%
all 179 -10.9% -19.4% 53% 28% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 28% -13.0%
10% -27.1% 20% -21.3%
15% -34.2% 17% -28.9%
20% -40.6% 15% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$41 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$598
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses95 / 84
Open positions2
Markets (closed)179 / 181
History coverage190d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? No 7¢ 0¢ $36 $1 −$35 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $102 −$88 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 28 $82 −$79 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$32 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $67 +$64 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $27 +$27 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 28 $13 +$12 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $27 +$35 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 28 $23 +$21 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 28 $38 +$37 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 29? Jun 28 $4 −$2 -51%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 29? Jun 28 $121 −$3 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $121 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $108 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$31 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $49 +$13 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jan 19 $70 −$20 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jan 19 $62 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jan 19 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jan 19 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 19 $50 −$8 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 19 $48 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jan 19 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 19 $43 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 19 $49 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jan 19 $49 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jan 19 $70 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 18 $34 +$14 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 16 $7 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 16 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 16 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jan 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jan 12 $8 +$7 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jan 12 $22 −$14 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jan 12 $8 +$6 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jan 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jan 12 $188 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 12 $96 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 12 $142 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 12 $94 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $14 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $95 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $82 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $31 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $67 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $32 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $27 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $47 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $13 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 29? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 29? SELL No 86¢ $118 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 29? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 29? BUY No 87¢ $121 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $128 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $121 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $120 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 89¢ $108 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $16 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $61 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 4¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 4¢ $3 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.19 · official $14.19 (match) · 1338 history records