Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:12:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
04 0x0431…fea2 politics 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%4W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$1
other 20% $0
economics 20% $0
tech 10% $0
sports 5% +$1
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 27% 0% -9.5%
all 19 +0.0% -9.5% 21% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses4 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage112d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $226 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 06 $113 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $113 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $113 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $114 +$1 +1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $114 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $113 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 07 $113 $0 +0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $113 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Mar 22 $114 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $114 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $114 $0 +0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 13 $114 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $114 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 08 $114 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $114 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 05 $114 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $113 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $113 14h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $113 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $113 7d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $113 18d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $113 19d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $113 28d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $113 28d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $113 35d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $113 36d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $113 37d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $113 38d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $113 41d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 42d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $106 42d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $114 67d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $114 67d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $114 68d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $114 69d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 99¢ $114 71d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 98¢ $113 71d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $113 77d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $113 78d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $113 87d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 87d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 87d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $113 94d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $114 94d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $114 98d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $114 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records