Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:10:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0431…3dd8 sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$380 (-29%) realized −$423 · open +$43
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$90
14 days+$90
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$164
other 18% −$94
crypto 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +45.4% +31.5% 100% 100% +31.5%
≤30d 1 +45.4% +31.5% 100% 100% +31.5%
≤90d 9 -51.7% -56.3% 33% 22% -41.8%
all 13 -14.3% -22.4% 46% 38% -35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 38% -35.9%
10% -29.9% 38% -42.1%
15% -36.6% 38% -47.7%
20% -42.8% 23% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$65 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$326
Realized−$423
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage124d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 64¢ $104 $127 +$23 (+22%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 42¢ 52¢ $84 $105 +$21 (+25%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $95 $94 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $198 +$90 +45%
Como 1907 leading at halftime? Apr 20 $89 −$89 -100%
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton Apr 20 $100 −$51 -51%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Apr 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $98 +$2 +2%
Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Lorenzo Musetti Apr 17 $102 +$38 +38%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Apr 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group S Feb 15 $45 +$23 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Feb 15 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Feb 15 $2 +$3 +124%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 15 $51 −$3 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $96 26m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 42¢ $85 27m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $106 27m
Spread: Canada (-3.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $288 28m
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Canada 68¢ $198 1h
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 65¢ $7 61d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 65¢ $36 61d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 65¢ $4 61d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 65¢ $54 61d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $94 61d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $7 61d
Como 1907 leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $89 62d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 43¢ $100 62d
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $49 62d
Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Lorenzo Musetti SELL Arthur Fils 100¢ $140 62d
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton BUY Joao Fonseca 36¢ $72 62d
Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Lorenzo Musetti BUY Arthur Fils 72¢ $102 62d
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton BUY Ben Shelton 56¢ $28 62d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 50¢ $49 62d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 51¢ $50 62d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes $98 62d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group S SELL Vitality 100¢ $68 123d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $11 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 123d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group S BUY Vitality 66¢ $45 123d
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol SELL Yes $47 123d
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol BUY Yes $51 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $325.83 · official $325.83 (match) · 37 history records