Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:26:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
04 0x0436…0406 sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,989 (+12%) realized +$1,989 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$464per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$305est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$33
other 1% −$242
crypto 1% −$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +15.2% +4.3% 57% 57% -30.9%
≤30d 32 -15.7% -23.8% 41% 41% -11.6%
≤90d 32 -15.7% -23.8% 41% 41% -11.6%
all 32 -15.7% -23.8% 41% 41% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 41% -11.6%
10% -31.1% 41% -20.0%
15% -37.7% 41% -27.8%
20% -43.8% 38% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$559) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$470 vs −$340 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,989
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$305
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 37
History coverage30d
Avg bet$464
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 27 $30 +$39 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $99 −$96 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $53 −$51 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $38 +$36 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $8 +$8 +93%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $176 −$173 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $88 +$88 +101%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $19 −$18 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $248 −$242 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $65 −$64 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $996 −$984 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,380 −$1,359 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,502 −$1,477 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,644 +$1,359 +83%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $489 −$480 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $989 −$384 -39%
Set 1 Winner: Bellucci vs Hanfmann Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $6 +$5 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,852 +$3,062 +107%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 07 $1,003 +$974 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 05 $544 −$536 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $559 −$146 -26%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $303 +$132 +44%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 02 $2,280 −$138 -6%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $509 −$58 -12%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $138 −$135 -98%
Ruud vs. Paul: Match O/U 38.5 May 30 $70 +$68 +97%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 May 29 $95 −$93 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini May 28 $277 +$316 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Portugal win on 2026- BUY 23¢ $69 54m
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Phoenix Mercury 100¢ $69 59m
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Phoenix Mercury 43¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $99 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $17 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a BUY 10¢ $164 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $53 6d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Linda Noskova 100¢ $53 6d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 40¢ $22 6d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Jessica Pegula 63¢ $22 6d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 47¢ $7 6d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 47¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 6d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $176 7d
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream SELL Atlanta Dream 100¢ $176 7d
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 49¢ $88 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Will United State BUY 11¢ $102 8d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Will Australia wi BUY 10¢ $308 8d
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 16¢ $19 9d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Will England vs. Croati BUY 22¢ $12 10d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $248 10d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $65 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 11d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $996 11d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $378 11d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $3 11d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $1,002 11d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $5 15d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $1,494 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $67.84 · 73 history records