Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:30:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0437…30f4 weather 508 markets active 2h ago coverage 565d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ Covers last 564d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,733 (-5%) realized −$5,750 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate63%315W / 188L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$1,070est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$4,009now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$82
14 days+$367
30 days+$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$1,870
other 20% −$154
weather 11% −$177
politics 4% −$1,264
tech 4% −$304
economics 3% −$41
world 3% −$505
crypto 3% −$1,509
finance 1% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -10.9% -19.4% 72% 21% -7.1%
≤30d 154 +6.4% -3.7% 58% 37% -8.0%
≤90d 476 -1.4% -10.8% 63% 38% -12.9%
all 503 -1.4% -10.8% 63% 37% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 37% -14.4%
10% -19.4% 13% -22.5%
15% -27.2% 9% -30.0%
20% -34.3% 6% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$88 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

565d coverage
Net worth$4,009
Realized−$5,750
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses315 / 188
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$1,070
Open positions5
Markets (closed)503 / 508
History coverage565d ⚠
Avg bet$224
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 503 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $1,820 $1,810 −$10 (-1%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $1,036 $1,050 +$13 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $547 $572 +$24 (+4%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 92¢ 92¢ $501 $499 −$2 (-0%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 21¢ 13¢ $21 $13 −$8 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 20 $55 +$8 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $219 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 18 $184 −$103 -56%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $251 +$21 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $67 +$2 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $251 +$18 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $250 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $262 −$207 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $51 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $63 +$18 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $72 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $290 +$11 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $250 +$16 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $248 +$467 +188%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $60 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $195 +$88 +45%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $251 −$250 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $134 −$41 -30%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $449 +$27 +6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $250 +$5 +2%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $318 +$8 +3%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 14 $250 +$18 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$14 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $70 +$9 +12%
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya G Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $251 +$24 +10%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $249 +$14 +6%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $76 +$26 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $214 +$16 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $222 +$15 +7%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $101 +$19 +19%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $341 +$60 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $790 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $59 +$7 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $69 +$13 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $152 +$25 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $200 +$10 +5%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $202 +$16 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $868 +$112 +13%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $68 −$57 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 07 $172 +$5 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $250 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 95¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $82 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 94¢ $91 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 94¢ $42 2h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $251 33h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 95¢ $55 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 95¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $24 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $85 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $36 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL Yes 27¢ $77 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $178 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $28 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $251 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $65 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 71¢ $22 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,009.05 · official $4,008.55 (match) · 3500 history records