Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:39:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
04 0x0438…9d98 sports 535 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,060 (-1%) realized −$13,049 · open +$989
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%285W / 659L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,120per market
Trades / day40.3pace
Fees−$19,454est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2,674now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 81d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$27,592
other 1% +$4,033
crypto 0% +$1,869
world 0% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-50.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 416 -97.2% -97.5% 1% 1% -96.8%
≤30d 440 -92.9% -93.6% 4% 3% -93.2%
≤90d 944 -45.1% -50.3% 30% 28% -18.4%
all 944 -45.1% -50.3% 30% 28% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.3% 28% -18.4%
10% -55.1% 24% -26.2%
15% ← realistic here -59.4% 20% -33.3%
20% -63.4% 14% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$1,273) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -86% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,183 vs −$788 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$2,674
Realized−$13,049
Unrealized+$989
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses285 / 659
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$19,454
Open positions1
Markets (closed)944 / 535
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$3,120
Trades / day40.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 944 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? No 52¢ 82¢ $1,685 $2,674 +$989 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-02-21? Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Antalya 3: Arantxa Rus vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Will AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Daria Kasatki Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $197 −$197 -100%
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-02-20? Jun 20 $900 −$900 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-02-22? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Baylor Bears vs. Kansas State Wildcats: O/U 159.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $98 −$98 -100%
Mexican Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Gael Monfils Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 20 $1,125 −$853 -76%
South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. North Carolina Central Eagles Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $98 −$98 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Jun 20 $795 −$795 -100%
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Lille OSC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-03-06? Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks vs. UT Martin Skyhawks Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-19? Jun 20 $400 −$400 -100%
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Saint Mary's Gaels Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $98 −$98 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-03-08? Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $220 −$220 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Talia Gibson vs Ann Li Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Delray Beach Open: Nuno Borges vs Coleman Wong Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Elena Rybakina vs Elina Svitolina Jun 20 $320 −$320 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs DRX Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-13? Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-25? Jun 20 $537 −$537 -100%
Will Jeju SK FC win on 2026-03-15? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Liudmila Samsonova vs Leylah Fer Jun 20 $45 −$220 -488%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $400 −$400 -100%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-03-08? Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Rockets vs. Bulls Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $197 −$201 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $109 −$109 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $546 −$546 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-26? Jun 20 $310 −$310 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $98 −$98 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $859 −$859 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $394 −$394 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 52¢ $1,710 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $644 9h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 60¢ $392 15h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $984 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $310 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $261 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $512 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $638 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $187 9d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $190 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $452 10d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY FlyQuest 55¢ $384 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 74¢ $384 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 79¢ $416 12d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Yandex 33¢ $416 12d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 71¢ $925 12d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Milwaukee Brewers 76¢ $707 13d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FUT Esports 79¢ $371 13d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 50¢ $188 15d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 53¢ $191 16d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner BUY TYLOO 60¢ $116 16d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 80¢ $14 17d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 79¢ $79 17d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 89¢ $75 18d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $114 18d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner BUY JD Gaming 55¢ $321 19d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $242 20d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Red Force 60¢ $1,611 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,674.06 · official $2,641.65 · 3500 history records