Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:02:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x0438…cf98
other · 6 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$75 +32%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$141 · open −$66
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$141
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit17%
Chart Positions 2 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$141
14 days+$141
30 days+$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals Yes 31¢ 0¢ $33 $1 −$32 (-98%)
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Yes 33¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-99%)
Ermedin Demirović: 1+ goals Yes 22¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $39 +$33 +86%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 +$57 +112%
Ermedin Demirović: 1+ goals Jun 12 $23 −$22 -98%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $51 +$73 +143%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 78% +$18
sports 22% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $72 1h
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $39 2h
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $35 2h
Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $34 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $108 24h
Ermedin Demirović: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $23 26h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $51 26h
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $124 2d
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+44.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +60.2% +44.9% 75% 75% +68.9%
≤30d 4 +60.2% +44.9% 75% 75% +68.9%
≤90d 4 +60.2% +44.9% 75% 75% +68.9%
all 4 +60.2% +44.9% 75% 75% +68.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +44.9% 75% +68.9%
10% +31.0% 75% +52.7%
15% +18.4% 75% +38.0%
20% +6.8% 75% +24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $16.43 · 9 history records