Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:15:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x043a…7f06
tech · 14 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$1,294 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$959 · open +$314
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY tech specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16,558
Realized+$959
Unrealized+$314
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)5 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2,501
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 9 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$959
7 days+$959
14 days+$959
30 days+$959
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No 91¢ 94¢ $4,387 $4,491 +$104 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $3,442 $3,459 +$18 (+1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 82¢ 82¢ $3,059 $3,068 +$9 (+0%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 91¢ 92¢ $1,905 $1,931 +$26 (+1%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? No 88¢ 98¢ $1,204 $1,340 +$136 (+11%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,030 $1,036 +$6 (+1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $601 $602 +$1 (+0%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 81¢ 84¢ $374 $388 +$14 (+4%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No 93¢ 94¢ $242 $243 +$1 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 −$500 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,209 +$366 +30%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $1,609 +$70 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $7,609 +$383 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $7,792 +$639 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 67% +$1,152
other 33% +$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $58 2h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $328 7h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $533 7h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $115 7h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY No 83¢ $299 7h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY No 83¢ $33 15h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 19h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $249 19h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? BUY No 91¢ $101 20h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? BUY No 91¢ $2 21h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? BUY No 91¢ $2 21h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? BUY No 91¢ $2 21h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? BUY No 91¢ $101 25h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $197 28h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 28h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $988 28h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $76 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 75¢ $201 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 30h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY No 83¢ $36 32h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY No 83¢ $31 32h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $500 32h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY No 83¢ $396 32h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $25 32h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 32h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY No 92¢ $502 32h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? BUY No 83¢ $118 32h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $600 33h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $42 33h
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market clos BUY No 90¢ $406 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -10.4% -19.0% 80% 20% -4.9%
≤30d 5 -10.4% -19.0% 80% 20% -4.9%
≤90d 5 -10.4% -19.0% 80% 20% -4.9%
all 5 -10.4% -19.0% 80% 20% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 20% -4.9%
10% -26.7% 20% -14.0%
15% ← realistic here -33.8% 0% -22.3%
20% -40.3% 0% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,557.74 · official $16,557.74 (match) · 106 history records