Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x043b…477f crypto 137 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (220 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate77%106W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day220.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (220 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -2.8% -12.1% 77% 68% -12.5%
≤30d 137 -2.8% -12.1% 77% 68% -12.5%
≤90d 137 -2.8% -12.1% 77% 68% -12.5%
all 137 -2.8% -12.1% 77% 68% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover220.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 68% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 28% -20.8%
15% -28.2% 8% -28.5%
20% -35.2% 3% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses106 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day220.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 326 history records