Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x043c…2bc2 crypto 1119 markets active 1d ago coverage 85d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$495 (-12%) realized −$495 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate51%572W / 547L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day31.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$458
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 +8.7% -1.6% 68% 47% -15.0%
≤30d 598 -16.4% -24.4% 47% 39% -23.9%
≤90d 1119 -12.9% -21.2% 51% 37% -18.2%
all 1119 -12.9% -21.2% 51% 37% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 37% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 33% -26.0%
15% -35.6% 28% -33.1%
20% -41.9% 19% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$495
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses572 / 547
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1119 / 1119
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1119 Trades
no open positions (271 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records