Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:47:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
04 0x043f…bdcd other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$42
14 days−$60
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$25
world 29% $0
culture 14% −$14
crypto 9% $0
tech 7% −$13
finance 5% −$5
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +8.9% -1.5% 33% 33% -15.0%
≤30d 18 -1.9% -11.2% 6% 6% -12.2%
≤90d 19 -1.8% -11.1% 5% 5% -12.1%
all 19 -1.8% -11.1% 5% 5% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 5% -12.1%
10% -19.6% 5% -20.5%
15% -27.4% 5% -28.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage31d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 43¢ 47¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 96¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+165%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 20 $371 −$33 -9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $12 +$5 +40%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $315 −$14 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 08 $94 −$13 -14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 07 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? May 30 $220 $0 +0%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 30 $103 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 30 $203 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? May 23 $110 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 23 $52 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? May 23 $52 $0 +0%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 23 $104 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? May 23 $50 $0 +0%
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? May 22 $50 $0 +0%
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? May 22 $52 $0 +0%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 22 $52 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 22 $103 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May? May 22 $52 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 49¢ $81 1h
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 50¢ $338 1h
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 11h
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 43¢ $71 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $17 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 29h
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 53¢ $371 3d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 44¢ $2 3d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 44¢ $3 3d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 44¢ $3 3d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 44¢ $3 3d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 44¢ $260 3d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 46¢ $2 4d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 46¢ $27 4d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 45¢ $315 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 32¢ $81 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 36¢ $94 12d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? SELL Yes $5 13d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 14d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY Yes $10 16d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL No 99¢ $100 31d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 100¢ $100 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.56 · official $9.56 (match) · 61 history records