trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +8.9% | -1.5% | 33% | 33% | -15.0% |
| ≤30d | 18 | -1.9% | -11.2% | 6% | 6% | -12.2% |
| ≤90d | 19 | -1.8% | -11.1% | 5% | 5% | -12.1% |
| all | 19 | -1.8% | -11.1% | 5% | 5% | -12.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.1% | 5% | -12.1% |
| 10% | -19.6% | 5% | -20.5% |
| 15% | -27.4% | 5% | -28.2% |
| 20% | -34.5% | 0% | -35.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 43¢ | 47¢ | $4 | $5 | +$0 (+9%) |
| Starmer out by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 96¢ | $2 | $5 | +$3 (+165%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Jun 20 | $371 | −$33 | -9% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 19 | $12 | +$5 | +40% |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Jun 17 | $315 | −$14 | -4% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 08 | $94 | −$13 | -14% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? | Jun 07 | $10 | −$5 | -47% |
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | May 30 | $220 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | May 30 | $103 | $0 | +0% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | May 30 | $203 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? | May 23 | $110 | $0 | +0% |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? | May 23 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? | May 23 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? | May 23 | $104 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | May 23 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? | May 22 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? | May 22 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? | May 22 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | May 22 | $103 | $0 | +0% |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May? | May 22 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 20 | $100 | $0 | -0% |