Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
04 0x0443…ea0f crypto 1877 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (218 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,854 (+22%) realized +$2,853 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate76%1605W / 497L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day218.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$1,476
other 2% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (218 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1629 -14.7% -22.8% 70% 30% -12.6%
≤30d 2102 -8.4% -17.1% 76% 33% -10.5%
≤90d 2102 -8.4% -17.1% 76% 33% -10.5%
all 2102 -8.4% -17.1% 76% 33% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover218.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 33% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 18% -19.0%
15% -32.3% 10% -26.8%
20% -38.9% 5% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$2,853
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1605 / 497
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2102 / 1877
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day218.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $24 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $18 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $18 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $24 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $19 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $19 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $21 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $22 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $17 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $18 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $23 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $24 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $24 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $24 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $24 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $22 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $23 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.09 · official $24.88 · 3500 history records