Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:30:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0443…c748 world 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate35%34W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$7
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$6
other 27% +$6
politics 16% +$3
sports 15% −$10
economics 2% $0
finance 0% −$3
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 33 -1.7% -11.0% 33% 3% -10.1%
≤90d 76 -0.4% -9.9% 36% 4% -9.7%
all 97 -5.3% -14.3% 35% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 5% -9.9%
10% -22.5% 4% -18.5%
15% -30.0% 1% -26.4%
20% -36.9% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses34 / 63
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)97 / 98
History coverage527d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 67¢ 68¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $62 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $31 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $78 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $29 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $29 −$1 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $77 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $24 +$6 +24%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $81 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $104 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $80 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $69 −$2 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $26 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 29 $25 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $4 −$1 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $8 $0 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $42 −$9 -21%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $68 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $44 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $135 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $9 −$3 -37%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 18 $7 $0 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $32 $0 -1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $64 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $71 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $68 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $101 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $5 $0 +2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $68 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $105 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $31 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $34 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $6 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $25 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $14 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $17 22h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $8 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $23 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $16 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $31 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $21 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $29 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $32 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $33 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $30 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.05 · official $31.05 (match) · 390 history records