Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0445…f22c crypto 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$189 (+12%) realized +$234 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days+$44
14 days+$44
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -13.1% -21.4% 42% 38% -6.3%
≤30d 24 -13.1% -21.4% 42% 38% -6.3%
≤90d 24 -13.1% -21.4% 42% 38% -6.3%
all 36 -20.4% -28.0% 39% 36% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 36% -14.2%
10% -34.9% 36% -22.4%
15% -41.2% 36% -29.9%
20% -46.9% 33% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$30 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$234
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage120d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $27 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $79 −$66 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $53 +$52 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$92 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$34 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$43 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$79 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$53 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$87 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $106 +$64 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$46 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 18 $10 +$13 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 18 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Feb 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Feb 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 18 $20 +$17 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 18 $20 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Feb 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Feb 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Feb 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Feb 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $7 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $22 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $53 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $13 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $53 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $53 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $99 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $70 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $75 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $53 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $53 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $53 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $95 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $53 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $1.98 · 62 history records